Here at Best Bets Central (that’s not actually a thing; I just made it up and probably won’t stick with it), we got off to a good start on Tuesday night. Thanks to the efforts of several sluggers, including Giancarlo Stanton with a backdoor cover in the ninth, we hit on two of our three prop bets.
It’s now time to keep the good times rolling with the Cardinals at Dodgers National League Wild Card Game. I’ve already posted my game pick and over/under selection over on SportsLine (subscribe here!), so here we’ll be digging in on more prop bets, mostly focusing on the good ol’ home run. It worked on Tuesday, so we gotta stick with what works.
Props and lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
First home run is a solo shot, +110
This one actually didn’t work on Tuesday night, but we’re going back to the well, regardless.
Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright has been amazing down the stretch, posting a 0.95 WHIP in his last 14 starts. Dodgers starter Max Scherzer has posted a 0.82 WHIP since joining the team. For those unfamiliar with WHIP, it’s essentially baserunners allowed per inning and those numbers are stellar. I fully expect both to be in tip-top shape Wednesday evening, which means baserunners will be at a premium.
As such, the most logical conclusion here is that nearly any home run we see all night will come with the bases empty. All we have are logic and gut feelings on bets like this, so we’ll go with it.
Turner had a career year at the plate, putting up a career-high 28 home runs and he’s had some big ones of late. He actually hit six in his last eight games. He’s also 5 for 14 with a pair of doubles in his career against Wainwright. Truth be told, it was mostly a gut feeling to grab this one, but the numbers on Turner add up.
If interested, you can get Turner homering in a Dodgers win for +450. That seems pretty enticing. If you want a bit better odds with less of a pay off, let’s loop in Seager.
Is Seager gonna go into postseason killer mode again? In the Dodgers’ 18 playoff games last year, he hit .328/.425/.746 with eight homers. He’s 2 for 7 with a double in his career against Wainwright.
Adam Wainwright over 4.5 strikeouts, +125
The Dodgers were 13th in the majors in strikeouts this season. Above average, sure, but it’s not egregious or anything. The point is that you can’t say they are tough to strikeout. They aren’t. They were also one of the worst teams in baseball against the slow curve this season and that’s a feature with Wainwright, notably as an out pitch.
Wainwright is not a strikeout artist — hence the low total here — but he’s averaging nearly seven innings per start during his current run (14 starts). Given that volume, I like him to get at least five punchouts against this Dodgers team.