The playoffs charge on and we get a bonus three-game day. When the schedule was first released, the last possible day with more than two games was supposed to be Monday, but thanks to neither NL series being a sweep and thegame from , it’s a three-game day.
I’m doing the game picks over on SportsLine. I’ve gone 11-3-1 thus far in the playoffs — and that was after an 0-1-1 start in the AL wild card game — so hop on over there and subscribe.
In this space, we’ll focus on props and other fun picks.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
The pick: Dodgers four or more runs through six innings, +145
The Dodgers backs are against the wall and I don’t expect them to go quietly. Also, it doesn’t appear weather is going to be nearly as much a factor as it was in Game 3. It’ll be a little warmer and without the excessive wind. The Dodgers have an offense that ranked number one in the NL in the regular season in runs scored while sitting second in OPS and third in homers. They hit for a lot more power at home, too.
Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani had a really good year overall, but he was also inconsistent. He went 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA in six starts against the Dodgers this season. A lot of the ugly ERA came when he coughed up 10 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Dodgers on May 23. I’m willing to throw that out, but I’m more concerned with how he’s seen them six times this season. With a talented offense like the Dodgers, they’ve seen everything he has. Given that they either lose or go home, I think they knock him around enough to get into the underbelly of the Giants’ bullpen early and have at least the four runs needed before the seventh inning here.
NLDS Game 4: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
The pick: Under 8 runs, +100
Featured Game | Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
We’ve seen three games total in this series and there were just three runs in each game. There was a two-run shot and a solo homer in Game 1. In Game 3, it was only a three-run homer. Basically, in the entire series, there has been one half inning where a team scored multiple runs by simply stringing a few hits together.
Brewers starter Eric Lauer has been excellent for most of the season, too. If we toss out his last start — it was against the Dodgers in a game they desperately needed while the Brewers were playing for nothing — he had a 1.78 ERA in his previous 14 outings. The Brewers are facing elimination, too, so expect Josh Hader to be available for at least two innings, maybe more.
On the other side, Braves starter Charlie Morton got through six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits, before giving up the hit-by-pitch and two-run homer in the seventh in Game 1. He hasn’t gone on three days’ rest since 2008, but I’m not too worried about it. His arm is plenty strong.
I also have no faith whatsoever in the Brewers’ offense right now.
In their last 13 games, the Brewers as a team hit .206/.281/.355 with an average of 3.5 runs per game. They were 14th in average and 11th in OPS all season. So far in this division series, they’ve scored just two runs, which came on a two-run homer in Game 1. They’ve hit .176/.242/.242.
ALDS Game 4: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
The pick: Lance McCullers, Jr. over 5.5 strikeouts +100
Featured Game | Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
McCullers only struck the White Sox out four times in his 6 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the series, but he’s better on the road. In his last 17 starts, he struck out at least six hitters 13 times. The White Sox struck out 13 times in their Game 3 win, too. I’m going with McCullers coming out aggressive, looking to close the White Sox out and getting more swings and misses this time around.